I’m posting from my phone using what little data I have available. Please bear with me.
Hurricane Rick is forecast to make landfall near Cabo San Lucas, Baja California peninsula as a major hurricane. However, the type of turn Rick needs to make is very difficult to time and small forecasting errors in the turn could lead to landfall forecast errors of dozens of miles. All in the cone of uncertainty should continue to monitor Rick.
Super Typhoon Lupit is an impressive cyclone. However, my access to data on Lupit is minimal and I have very little to contribute. I do like the forecast but even that one is tricky. I’ll explain why.
Hurricane Rick
Computer forecast models continue to come into good agreement on Hurricane Rick and the counter-clockwise turn that has been discussed several times here.
Rick is still currently moving west-northwest. This should continue through the next 24 to 36 hours before Rick begins making a sharp turn to the north around a mid-level ridge.
As typical in these type of recurves timing is absolutely critical and difficult to forecast. While I don’t disagree with the NHC’s forecast (it’s the same one I called before Rick even developed), we both could still end up being off significantly. A sharper turn and Rick is missing Cabo and hitting south of Mazatlan.
However, a broader turn and Rick could go inland further north – perhaps the south-central Baja Peninsula coast similar to the NHC’s forecast plot yesterday morning.
Regardless, all whom are in the NHC’s “cone of uncertainty” should be prepared to begin making preparations/evacuations beginning tomorrow morning.
Hurricane Rick is not a symmetrical cyclone with the deepest convection in the eastern quadrant. Cloud tops are extensive and cold nearest the eye which is expected in a hurricane packing 180mph winds. Yet, the winds and 906mb pressure do not even come close to making Rick one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record.
Rick is likely to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle which will cause some weakening (last repost had an eye 15 miles wide). However, this alone would not weaken Rick much. SST’s are supportive of a cyclone Rick’s size.
The saving grace would be shear induced from an approaching trough that should elongate Rick northeast to southwest and cause some weakening. In my opinion it seems this may be the reason Rick is lopsided though I have seen no data to support this.
Nonetheless, Rick will still be a major hurricane whenever/wherever it comes ashore.
Some of you may remember Vienna whom posted the other day she was headed to Baja. I’ve been updating Vienna via email but have not heard back from her. As soon as I do I will try and post a comment below.
Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit is stuck in a weakness of steering currents which is causing the cyclone to do a counter-clockwise loop in the West Pacific. Thankfully this is not near any land mass.
Lupit is still forecast to resume a westward track across the northern Philippines with landfall in about four days – Thursday. Though I see nothing wrong with the current forecast it could change considerably the longer Lupit meanders. I could very easily see Lupit still being pushed more west-southwest than the current forecast calls for a short period of time.
This is only based on experience and what data I’ve seen and NOT based on any new data within the last 24 hours.
From what I’ve seen on satellite imagery Lupit itself is a very impressive storm. Unfortunately, I cannot pull up advisory details from my phone. I ask if anyone else can do that and post in the comments it would be greatly appreciated.
I will try and post a more detailed observation on Lupit when I return home late tonight; definately tomorrow morning.
It’s still a bit unclear of the hybrid system off the mid-Atlantic coast will redevelop enough convection to warrant classification by the NHC. However, the system is trying. There remains a well-defined low-level circulation near 36°N, 71°W, or due east of the North Carolina/Virginia border. The system has had a couple of “flares” firing throughout the day. However, once the convection gets into the mid-levels the faster winds rip the tops away. However, the trough is expected to lift up throughout the day into tomorrow allowing a high pressure ridge to rebuild. If the system can maintain it’s low-level circulation – and there’s no reason to think it won’t – going into tomorrow afternoon we should start to see some convection redevelop.
Continue reading…
Beware the NHC forecast as this will be another tricky one. The question is: will Erika resemble Tropical Storm Danny or is it more likely to resemble Hurricane Bill? Forecasters are in a very uncomfortable position because Erika’s intensity will determine where the system goes. However, the deeper that Erika extends into the atmosphere the more likely it is to have more shear to contend with, thus creating a generally strong tropical storm or, perhaps, a minimal hurricane. That still may be generous. Southeast US residents should be prepared for a storm of some magnitude (like that one?). However, it seems more likely that as a weaker Erika would travel further west threatening the US, that it would be a weaker system and not a stronger one, which would get picked up and take Bill’s path.
If I had to choose between which storm Erika will resemble, I pick Danny. Without the fizzling out at the end. I’ll post a more detailed look when I can.
Hurricane Bill is turning into one of those hurricanes. You know, the ones that impress you with size and strength, but start to disappear before you’re really ready. Look across the Atlantic or East Pacific. Study the MJO. Bill will be the last for several days. Or until the next one shows up. Whichever comes first. How’s that for a forecast? Bill is very ragged and losing intensity. The storm is also moving more northerly. Just as the NHC forecast. Yawn. Continue reading…
I’ll try to start doing this on a regular basis as I can. My primary focus is adding additional features to the site ASAP (look for a new map by the end of this week) so I don’t have much time to really follow what’s going on. But, like Tom Brady looking downfield, I can quickly see what I like and don’t like about the tropics. Continue reading…
I wrote a similar article on Hurricane Hanna about how the pressure of Hanna was well into hurricane levels yet, the storm was just a tropical storm. And, now we are seeing the same in Hurricane Ike. In fact, the pressure of Ike, now at 946mb where the National Hurricane Center says is sufficient for borderline category three/category four hurricane. It’s just a question of finding the winds to support that classification.
On the night of September 4, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hurricane Ike to a category four storm. The pressure at that time: 948mb. Hurricane Ike was at the end of a rapid intensification cycle and reconnaissance found surface winds in excess of 135mph. Yet, now, they can’t seem to find anything at the surface higher than 97mph.
I strongly suspect the National Hurricane Center will not be as reluctant to reclassify Ike based on that pressure as they were Hanna. Sometime today, I have to believe regardless of what the reconnaissance finds the National Hurricane Center will make an estimate of the winds to fit the pressure. I’m sure already they have used the Dvorak Technique to verify the winds the recon is finding. But, though I am not familiar with the Dvorak Technique, I’d be hard-pressed to believe that Ike, as well organized as it is, would not fit the typical cloud-classification of a category three hurricane.
The only thing that is important to note in regards to this is there is no eye…at least, not visibly. It is highly unusual a storm with that pressure would not have at least a partially-filled eye visible on satellite imagery. This almost suggests to me the storm may not be vertically-stacked, another issue we discussed in regards to Hanna. If that is indeed the case, then we would certainly see the intensification via winds once the storm starts having a more symmetrical CDO and an eye. Of course, at that point, expect even more intensification deeper than the storm is currently – at least, pressure-wise.
The mayor of Houston will be having a press conference at 6AM CDT. I will post on anything interesting he says. I’m very interested if they ask for mandatory evacuations or not. And if they do, how many people will heed?
But several sources show winds have barely reached above 35mph. In Greensboro, North Carolina, where a heavy band of convection has just passed through, winds are 30kts though the pressure has fallen to 989mb. At Brunswick County Airport, just north of where the center came ashore, the pressure was 992mb with a 30mph wind during landfall. Most observations across North Carolina and South Carolina show winds of 25-30 knots. So, where is this tropical storm?
Continue reading…
Amanda Ripley with Time Magazine has written a superb story on why the human migration to coastlines – not global warming, is the reasoning behind worsening natural disasters and hurricanes. I wish the article would also focus on the intensity of hurricanes over periods of time. But this will do for now.
Why Disasters Are Getting Worse
