Typhoon Nida is a minimal typhoon located about 200 miles south of Guam. Nida is currently moving towards the northeast around 10 knots.
Nida is not expected to be a significant threat to land throughout the next five days.
There is some question on the overall forecast as increasing wind shear and a possible cold surge from the north can weaken the system further than forecast. If that is the case, Nida may turn towards the west and, perhaps, the southwest as forecast by several computer models.
Ultimately, this will depend on if Nida becomes a low-to-mid-level circulation later in the forecast period or if the system can still maintain some depth despite the conditions. The official forecast calls for the latter scenario and a continuous push towards the northwest over the five-day period. Continue reading…
First, my apologies for not writing for quite a while. I’ve been working on a preliminary report for Ida. But, other than that, other things have taken precedence. I hope to have the Ida report soon but with the holidays this week, who knows?
I wanted to write today about several cyclones running the globe. I started with one developing in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, again, things have come up I’m unable to write in detail about the other system. However, I will have those write-ups tomorrow. Please, stay tuned.
An area designated Invest 96W is getting better organized. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) for this area of disturbance located in the southern South China Sea. A TCFA means a tropical cyclone is likely to develop within the next 24 hours. The JTWC lists the chances of development as good – the highest possible.
The system is about 310miles (574km) northeast (47°) of Singapore moving north-northeast.
The system pretty much dissipated as the low-level circulation center became exposed and convection was lost due to cold air.
I was going to go off on this long rant about why the JTWC and PAGASA are issuing advisories for a system the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre – Tokyo (RSMC) doesn’t even acknowledge. But, I won’t. The system was quite likely a depression. It is nothing now. And, I’m done discussing it.
Meanwhile, the remnants of cyclone Mirinae have killed 11 in Vietnam, according to the Associated Press. Two are missing. That same article mentions the Philippine death toll has not risen above 20.
There are no active cyclones across the globe this morning.
Tropical Depression 24W is expected to worsen flooding in already soaked Philippines
As you can see in the satellite rainfall estimates above, nearly 1.0in (25.4mm) of rain per hour are expected near the center of circulation with 1.2in (30.5mm) values in outer bands. It will not take much rain at all to induce flash-flooding yet again in a region already soaked by rains from two typhoons in the past month.
Though I have not seen official rainfall total forecasts, I would not be surprised if areas saw as much as 10.0in (254.0mm) due to the cyclone’s extremely slow movement.
24W is moving west-southwest (270°) at 6kts (7mph or 11kph). This motion will bring 24W over land around noon Tuesday, UTC, 8:00 PM Tuesday, PHT.
Maximum sustained winds are 30kts (35mph or 56kph) with gusts to 40kts (46mph or 74kph). No strenghtening is forecast prior to landfall.
Maximum sustained winds according to PAGASA are near 30kts (35mph or 56kph).
Storm Signal #1 means winds 16kts (18mph or 30kph) to 32kts (37mph or 59kph) are possible within 36 hours. It is the first of and lightest of four storm signals. Typical expectations are broken small limbs and other light crop damages as well as unroofing on homes of light materials.
“Tino” is not a true tropical depression as it has yet to have a closed surface circulation; a requirement for tropical cyclones. While Tino does have an impressive mid and upper-level structure, it must establish a surface circulation before the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre – Tokyo (RSMC) will initiate advisories on the system.
What’s interesting to note is PAGASA indicates the system has moved southwest of this morning’s location. This would put more of northern Philippines under a threat of heavier rains. In addition, the organizing structure of the cyclone would help consolidate the heaviest convection and rainfall closer to the center of circulation.
Currently, I cannot find any recent estimates of rainfall potential for this system but I will continue to look for them throughout the day. Based on this morning’s data and current trends I’d say 1.0in (25.4mm) per hour with slightly higher rates on the windward side of mountainous regions is not out of the question.
Should the system be upgraded to a tropical storm, the next available official name is Nida.
Mirinae may be a tropical storm or typhoon – depending on who you ask. I think it’s closer to a typhoon. Nonetheless, it is currently coming inland in Vietnam and this will likely be my last report on Mirinae. However, a developing storm system that could become Nida is developing off the northeast coast of Luzon and could bring some decent rains to the northeast region.
Tropical Storm Mirinae should be making landfall in south Vietnam early Monday morning, UTC. Mirinae is expected to create flash-flooding conditions in the mountainous regions but nothing like what was seen in the Philippines.
As if that’s not enough, it appears that yet another tropical cyclone is developing east of the Philippines and should make landfall in about 24 hours. However, the system is not organizing quickly. While it will aggravate the current situation, it doesn’t appear at this time that it should compound flooding beyond what has already been seen this week.
Tropical Storm Mirinae made landfall at 6:00PM UTC, 2:00 AM Saturday morning, PHT, in Mauban, Quezon. At that time, the cyclone had sustained winds of 55kts (63mph or 102kph).
It’s too early to say that the Philippines were spared a serious blow. But, reports coming out of the region are not as bad as initially feared. The highest known rainfall totals (that I can find) are just over 5.0in (127.0mm) just south of where Mirinae passed. Reports indicate Manila saw 3.3in (83.8mm) of rain.
Tropical Storm Mirinae is a very disorganized cyclone right now and is expected to weaken more before coming ashore in south Vietnam late Sunday or early Monday, UTC.
Typhoon Mirinae – referred locally as Typhoon Santi (Korean for “Milky Way”) – has continued a west-southwestward track a bit longer than forecast 24 hours ago. It is now expected Mirinae will pass directly over Manilla, Philippines late tonight, UTC.
Though Manilla is forecast to be in the center of the typhoon early Saturday morning, local time, Manilla may not see as huge an impact as originally feared. I’ll tell you why.
Make no mistake: there will be no last-second turn of Mirinae.
Typhoon Mirinae is caught in the flow of a ridge to the north. That ridge is expected to remain in place over the next five days. There is nothing on the maps that will break that ridge down within the next 36 hours.
